CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2017-07-14T01:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2017-07-14T01:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/12765/-1
CME Note: There was an M2.4 flare starting at 01:07, clear dimmings and rising/opening loops.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2017-07-16T05:14Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0
Dst min. in nT: -69
Dst min. time: 2017-07-16T16:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2017-07-16T08:53Z
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note:

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2017-07-14 05:29
- Time at C2: 2017-07-14 01:36
- Radial speed: 750.0 km/s
- Half angle: 49 deg
- Eruption location: S09W40
Inferences:
- Associated flare: M2.4 (S06W29). Peak at 2017-07-14 01:07
Predictions for Earth:
- In-situ shock speed: 702.81 km/s
- Shock arrival time: 2017-07-16 08:53 (i.e. predicted transit time: 55.30 hours)

Lead Time: 37.40 hour(s)
Difference: -3.65 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2017-07-14T15:50Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy